MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit
Forecaster summary - Issued 2024-01-09T12:39:55
High energy electron flux (greater than 2MeV) as measured by GOES-16 at GEO is currently at background, and in the absence of any significant enhancement is expected to persist at this level. Although brief periods of Moderate flux are possible days 2-4 (10-12 Jan) in response to any fast wind or CME enhancements that might occur.
The associated 24 hour fluence is expected to remain below the Active threshold, with REFM providing good guidance.
| High Energy Electron Event Forecast | ||
|---|---|---|
| Issued 2024-01-09T12:39:55 | ||
| Probability of threshold exceedance | ||
| Active | V.Active | |
| Day 1 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 2 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 3 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 4 | 1% | 1% |