Forecaster summary - Issued 2024-01-16T13:16:36

High energy electron flux (greater than 2MeV) as measured by GOES16 at GEO is currently at background to moderate levels, and in the absence of any significant enhancement is expected to persist around this level throughout much of the forecast period.

Connection to a coronal hole high speed stream may occur from late day 1 or day 2 (16-17 Jan), likely waning into day 4 (19 Jan) with any associated enhancement not expected to produce any significant electron response until day 4 at the earliest.

MOSWOC REFM forecast values maintains fluence well below Active throughout the period. This is considered reasonably good guidance. Recurrence would suggest fluence values may approach the Active level by the end of day 2 (17 Jan), however, the coronal hole is smaller and less pronounced and further east on this rotation so any enhancement is expected to be less significant and later than on the previous rotation.