Forecaster summary - Issued 2023-12-17T00:42:35

High energy electron flux is currently mainly within Normal Background levels, and is expected to remain so in the immediate term. The combined 14 December CMEs are likely to compress the Van Allen belts as and when they pass Earth, however there is then a window for recovery between the CME effects waning and the fast wind from CH82 arriving. This leads to a peak Slight Chance of Active 24-hour integrated fluence on Tuesday 19 December before the coronal hole arrives, with any more assured rise probably then delayed until later in the coming UTC working week as CH82 wanes.