MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit
Forecaster summary - Issued 2023-12-24T12:33:35
High energy electron flux (greater than 2MeV) has shown recent attenuation at GEO in light of geomagnetic activity from the unexpected minor fast wind enhancement from a positive polarity coronal hole. While unexpected and therefore of uncertain duration, it now appears to have peaked in potency. The currently observed low-400s of km/s fast wind is not likely to be capable of populating the Van Allen belts to breach the Active fluence threshold - especially given CH82/- failed to do so with a stronger and longer-lasting 500km/s fast wind.
The initial Slight Chance of Active fluence should therefore fall in the near-term, with the eventual rise over the Christmas period probably peaking at Moderate flux.
| High Energy Electron Event Forecast | ||
|---|---|---|
| Issued 2023-12-24T12:33:35 | ||
| Probability of threshold exceedance | ||
| Active | V.Active | |
| Day 1 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 2 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 3 | 5% | 1% |
| Day 4 | 5% | 1% |