MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit
Forecaster summary - Issued 2023-12-23T12:35:18
High energy electron flux (greater than 2MeV) peaked at High in response to coronal hole 82's fast wind, however it has shown a recent slight attenuation at GEO that is now unlikely to be replenished given that there are no further inputs expected. A steady decay in electron flux values at GEO is instead now expected.
MOSWOC REFM and persistence both suggest current levels should ebb in the four-day period, and this is accepted as good guidance, with the main uncertainty being the rate at which this occurs.
| High Energy Electron Event Forecast | ||
|---|---|---|
| Issued 2023-12-23T12:35:18 | ||
| Probability of threshold exceedance | ||
| Active | V.Active | |
| Day 1 | 20% | 1% |
| Day 2 | 10% | 1% |
| Day 3 | 10% | 1% |
| Day 4 | 10% | 1% |