Forecaster summary - Issued 2024-01-22T00:08:58

High energy electron flux (greater than 2MeV) is at Normal Background levels.

The only fast wind that was due in the period is now either overdue or else subtly now in course and not impactful. This was to be the main impetus for departure from the current suppressed state of electrons at GEO, however this now looks less likely. The inbound CME will still render GEO electron behaviour relatively low confidence into the new UTC working week, and there remains a Slight Chance of Active 24-hour integrated fluence.

It remains the case that this is as much a statement of increased 'error bars' as it is any expectation for a rise in populations. MOSWOC REFM is not expected to provide a useful steer given the dominance of a transient in the forecast.