MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit
Forecaster summary - Issued 2023-12-30T13:42:37
High energy electron flux (greater than 2MeV) has seen diurnal fluctuations between background and moderate. Flux is likely to drop out to mainly background with the onset of the fast wind of CH86, before increasing to Moderate day 4 (02 Jan) with a slight chance of peaking at High.
Electron fluence is expected to show a steady trend, remaining well below the Active (1e8 integrated pfu) threshold, but likely showing an increasing trend on day 4 (02 Jan) as a result of the resent fast wind onset. This is inline with REFM which is currently giving good guidance.
| High Energy Electron Event Forecast | ||
|---|---|---|
| Issued 2023-12-30T13:42:37 | ||
| Probability of threshold exceedance | ||
| Active | V.Active | |
| Day 1 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 2 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 3 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 4 | 1% | 1% |