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MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit

Forecaster summary - Issued 2023-11-23T13:28:23

Electron flux levels are expected to continue to increase in the next couple of days as the current solar wind pressure from CH73/+ continues to ease. Flux levels should increase to vary between Moderate and diurnally High levels. A suppression of electron flux to mainly background levels is expected towards the end of the period due to combined CME and HSS influences. 

Fluence levels are expected to remain below the 1e8 Active threshold initially, the risk of this being breached increases from day 2 (24 Nov) into day 3 (25 Nov), before decreasing again into day 4 (26 Nov).

 
High Energy Electron Event Forecast
Issued 2023-11-23T13:28:23
Probability of threshold exceedance
 ActiveV.Active
Day 1 1% 1%
Day 2 40% 1%
Day 3 40% 1%
Day 4 10% 1%