MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit
Forecaster summary - Issued 2023-12-25T01:11:18
High energy electron flux (greater than 2MeV) observed by GOES-16 is at background, With any recent solar wind enhancement subdued, and no further coronal hole features in the forecast, mainly background flux is expected to persist for much of the period, although brief periods of Moderate flux are likely. There are two CME glancing impacts possible day 3 and day 4 (27-28 Dec), and these are likely to subdue any observed flux until either later day 4, or more likely beyond this period.
The associated 24 hr fluence is expected to persist below Active (1e8 pfu). This is supported by REFM, which is currently providing good guidance.
| High Energy Electron Event Forecast | ||
|---|---|---|
| Issued 2023-12-25T01:11:18 | ||
| Probability of threshold exceedance | ||
| Active | V.Active | |
| Day 1 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 2 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 3 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 4 | 1% | 1% |