Forecaster summary - Issued 2024-01-24T12:02:38

The high energy electron (greater than 2MeV) flux is uncertain due to the effects of multiple possible CME glancing blows on the forecast, but will most likely remain at background levels for much of this period. Towards the end of the period, as CME effects are starting to wane, then electron flux may start to rise. This will be especially true if the CME arrival(s) give stronger geomagnetic activity. However, this is also assuming no further Earth directed CMEs emerge, and at present further CMEs are considered a likely scenario.

Electron fluence is likely to stay below Active (1e8 integrated pfu) for much of this period, but there is potential for a rise later Day 3 into Day 4 (26-27 Jan). Whilst REFM is currently reflecting this forecast as it only goes out three days, it will not be taking into account any potential CME impact, and will become increasingly unreliable in the coming days.