Forecaster summary - Issued 2024-02-24T00:44:11

High energy electron flux (greater than 2MeV) is currently at background levels. The expected high speed stream from CH01/-, arriving on Days 1 or 2 (24-25 Feb), may give an increase in the electron flux, but this is quite dependent on how much geomagnetic activity we see from this feature (and any potential glancing CME blow at the same time). There is the possibility of an increase in electron flux through Days 3 and 4 (26-27 Feb), perhaps to high levels, but confidence is low.

Electron fluence values are expected to remain below the Active (1e8 integrated pfu) threshold during much of this period, but with a possible rising trend later in the period. There is just a slight chance of reaching Active by Day 4. MOSWOC REFM is showing a below Active trend through the next three days, which seems reasonable at first, but may be slightly underestimating fluence by the end of its forecast period.