Forecaster summary - Issued 2024-02-24T13:14:11

High energy electron flux (greater than 2MeV) as observed by GOES-16 is currently at background. The expected enhancement from CH01/- and the potential glancing CME arrival are likely to increase populations through the Van Allen Belts, however confidence is low with how strong this enhancement will be. Initially observed at lower orbits, any enhanced flux will relax back to GEO through day 3 and day 4 (26-27 Feb), with the observed GOES-16 flux likely becoming Moderate with a chance of reaching High. 

The associated 24 fluence is expected to remain below the Active (1e8 integrated pfu) threshold during much of this period, but with a possible rising trend later in the period. This will give a slight chance of reaching Active by the end of day 4 (27 Feb). MOSWOC REFM is showing a below Active trend through the next three days, and will give good guidance in the absence of any coronal hole soured fast wind or CME enhancement.