Forecaster summary - Issued 2024-02-25T13:10:21

High energy electron flux (greater than 2MeV) as observed by GOES-16 is currently at background. The expected enhancement from CH01/- is likely to increase populations through the Van Allen Belts, however confidence is low with how strong this enhancement will be. Initially observed at lower orbits, any enhanced flux will relax back to GEO through day 2 and day 3 (26-27 Feb), with the observed GOES-16 flux likely becoming Moderate with a chance of reaching High, primarily at diurnal maximum on day 3 or 4 (27-28 Feb). 

The associated 24hr fluence is expected to remain below the Active (1e8 integrated pfu) threshold during much of this period, but with a rising trend likely from late day 2 (26 Feb). This will give a slight chance of reaching Active by the end of day 3 (27 Feb). MOSWOC REFM provides good guidance until any coronal hole enhancement occurs.