Forecaster summary - Issued 2024-02-26T13:26:50

High energy electron flux (greater than 2MeV) as observed by GOES-16 is currently at background. The possible enhancement from CH01/- may increase populations through the Van Allen Belts, however confidence is low with how strong this enhancement will be. Initially observed at lower orbits, any enhanced flux should relax back to GEO through day 2 and day 3 (27-28 Feb), with the observed GOES-16 flux likely becoming Moderate with a chance of reaching High, primarily at diurnal maximum on day 3 or 4 (28-29 Feb). 

The associated 24hr fluence is expected to remain below the Active (1e8 integrated pfu) threshold through much of, if not all of the period, but with a rising trend likely from day 2 (27 Feb). This will give a very slight chance of reaching Active fluence on days 3 and 4 (28 and 29 Feb).