Forecaster summary - Issued 2024-01-27T13:12:41

The high energy electron (greater than 2MeV) flux as observed by GOES16 is currently at background, and any enhancement from any glancing CMEs day 1 (27 Jan) is not expected to be sufficient to bring more than a modest increase to brief Moderate levels. Furthermore, this is only a low chance with the CMEs expected to miss. The next notable enhancement will be from the onset of the fast winds of coronal hole 94, with the observed flux rising later day 4 (30 Jan), or more likely beyond this forecast period, once the initial solar wind pressure from the onset of the fast winds eases. 

The associated 24 hour fluence is forecast to persist at background levels. This is supported by REFM which is currently providing good guidance.