Forecaster summary - Issued 2024-01-21T00:18:47

High energy electron flux (greater than 2MeV) is at Normal Background levels. The only fast wind due in the period ought to arrive inside the current UTC weekend, and provide the main impetus for departure from the current suppressed state of electrons at GEO, however the inbound CME will render electron behaviour in general relatively low confidence in the second half of the four-day period.

Relative to recent guidance, there is a now-increased eventual Slight Chance of Active 24-hour integrated fluence at GEO, however this is as much a statement of increased error bars as it is any expectation for a rise in populations. MOSWOC REFM is not expected to provide a useful steer given the dominance of a transient in the forecast.