Forecaster summary - Issued 2024-01-19T12:43:44

The high energy electron flux is expected to be at predominantly background levels at first, perhaps gradually rising later in the period under the influence of the high speed streams from CH92 and CH93. However, given the muted geomagnetic response seen so far and similar also expected with CH93, a significant increase in electron flux is thought unlikely, with electron flux probably only reaching moderate levels.

The associated fluence is expected to remain below the Active (1e8 integrated pfu) threshold throughout, but potentially with a slight rising trend. MOSWOC REFM is therefore considered to be offering good guidance for the next three days, keeping the fluence well below the Active level but increasing slightly.