Forecaster summary - Issued 2024-01-18T12:02:36

High energy electron flux (greater than 2MeV) as measured by GOES16 at GEO is currently at Normal Background levels. Given the now very late or very muted fast wind response from CH92, no drivers to influence electron populations are now expected until after CH93, which would put any eventual response in fluence at the very tail end of the forecast into Sunday 21 January.

While no CMEs feature in the forecast, it is day four that is expected to see any departure from the current very subdued electron counts at GEO - i.e. beyond REFM's range of 72 hours. The current forecast of a continuation of quiet conditions is accepted in the mean-time, with REFM's thoughts on CH93 awaited.