Forecaster summary - Issued 2024-01-18T00:27:31

High energy electron flux (greater than 2MeV) as measured by GOES16 at GEO is currently at background levels. Any fast wind onset from CH92/+ on Day 1 (18 Jan) is expected to be weak, and as such any electron flux enhancement is likely to be very limited. In addition, the onset of the fast winds of CH93/+ on Day 3 (20 Jan) will suppress any increase in flux which may have occurred. An increase is possible on Day 4 if the fast winds from CH93 have started to ease, but it is more likely that any response will be after the end of this period.

The associated 24 hour fluence is expected to remain below the Active level, perhaps with a rising trend later Day 4. REFM is providing good guidance for the short term, until any fast wind starts to appear.