MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit
Forecaster summary - Issued 2023-12-19T13:16:23
High energy electron flux is currently mostly at Normal Background levels and is expected to remain so early in the period, due to the fast wind from CH82/+ and a potential CME 19-20 Dec. Daily High electron levels may be achieved later day 2 or day 3 (20 or 21 Dec) before the HSS from CH83/- likely suppresses electrons once again. Active electron fluence is considered very unlikely throughout.
| High Energy Electron Event Forecast | ||
|---|---|---|
| Issued 2023-12-19T13:16:23 | ||
| Probability of threshold exceedance | ||
| Active | V.Active | |
| Day 1 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 2 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 3 | 5% | 1% |
| Day 4 | 5% | 1% |