Forecaster summary - Issued 2023-11-19T13:17:30

Electron flux levels are expected to remain at background with diurnal periods at Moderate, or possibly High levels. Following the arrival of a CME late Day 1 (19 Nov) or Day 2 (20 Nov) flux levels may be briefly suppressed, before recovering Day 3 (21 Nov). The onset of coronal hole HSS influence later Day 4 (22 Nov) may suppress flux levels towards the end of the period.

A rebound in fluence levels may show at GEO towards midweek UTC in the wake of the CME, with this likely to again be attenuated by a HSS from CH73/+ through the course of Day 4. CH73/+ is likely to be the most significant feature in terms of electron flux and fluence in the forecast, however its effects will likely not be felt until beyond the forecast period. 

Uncertainties surrounding the arrival time of the 16 November CME means that therefore REFM is not likely to prove useful beyond the first 24 hours, although its trend is otherwise considered accurate.