Forecaster summary - Issued 2023-11-18T13:20:52

GOES16 High energy electron flux is expected to continue at moderate levels today, perhaps seeing a diurnal peak at high levels. This is more probable on Day 2 (19 Nov) due to the forecast arrival of a weak high speed stream from the narrow coronal hole feature on the western disc. The potential CME arrival late Day 2 or early Day 3 (20 Nov) and associated geomagnetic activity may see flux levels become suppressed to background. Recovery of flux levels is than anticipated by Day 4 (21 Nov) with a period of High during the peak of the diurnal cycle.

The associated 24-hour electron flux is expected to remain below the Active (1e8 integrated pfu) level with a generally increasing but fluctuating trend following uncertain geomagnetic activity Days 2-3 (19-20 Nov). The REFM model shows the fluence remaining below the Active threshold, which is accepted. The REFM model otherwise not providing much of a steer.