Forecaster summary - Issued 2023-11-17T13:08:49

GOES16 High energy electron flux is currently at moderate levels and will likely continue at moderate through day 1 (17th) and 2 (18th), perhaps increasing to High levels from day 3 (19th) due to a weak high speed stream from the newly developed narrow coronal hole feature in the western hemisphere. CME arrival on day 4 (20th) likely to return levels down to background.

The associated 24-hour electron flux is expected to remain below the Active (1e8 integrated pfu) level, but perhaps with an increasing trend, which is not shown by the Met Office REFM model. However, the REFM model does show the fluence remaining below the Active threshold, which is accepted.