Forecaster summary - Issued 2023-11-16T13:06:27

High energy electron flux (greater than 2MeV) at GOES16 has persisted at Normal Background, with recent solar wind enhancements increasingly likely to have only a minimal impact at GEO. The postulated fast wind connection on day 1 (Thursday 16 November) is unlikely to significantly increase electron counts, even at its peak, but there is an increasing chance of at least Moderate flux being realised as a result, most likely over the UTC weekend.

The associated 24-hour electron flux is expected to remain below the Active (1e8 integrated pfu) level, but with decreasing confidence over the UTC weekend. This is supported by REFM, which shows a very slight rise in forecast and persistence trends and as a result is considered to be giving good guidance for a least the next 24 hours.