Forecaster summary - Issued 2023-11-09T12:39:40

High energy electron flux (greater than 2MeV) is expected to be at moderate levels with diurnal periods at high levels. Flux levels became High at 09/1135 UTC. There is a chance that following enhancement of the radiation belt due to the ongoing HSS that the electron flux may remain at high levels for protracted periods Days 1-3 (09-12 Nov).

The associated 24-hour electron fluence is expected to be just below the Active threshold at first, but with an expectation for it to exceed the Active (1e8 integrated pfu) threshold by later Day 1 (09 Nov) and remaining so through Day 2 (10 Nov), with a slight chance of reaching 1e9 integrated pfu. In the absence of further geomagnetic activity to disrupt the radiation belt, fluence levels may remain above the Active threshold until the end of the forecast period. Confidence in this decreases due to uncertainty in the waning influence of the current HSS and the potential for further weak enhancements from coronal hole activity late in the period.

The overall trend of the MOSWOC REFM model looks reasonable, however, maximum fluence values are considered to be on the extreme side.