Forecaster summary - Issued 2023-10-19T00:17:01

Electron flux observed by GOES-16 at GEO is currently at background levels. Solar wind enhancements are possible through the coming days, mainly associated with a number of potential CME arrivals throughout the period, or the onset of a HSS from small coronal hole CH62/- fast wind.  These are all low confidence however, and any enhancement is expected to be largely weak. These may increase electron populations through the Van Allen belts at times, which could bring periods of Moderate flux, most likely towards the end of the period.

The associated 24 hour fluence is expected to remain below the Active threshold, although an increasing trend is likely, especially towards the end of the period, depending on the strength of any enhancements that occur. This is supported by REFM, however this will only provide good guidance in the absence of any CME or fast wind enhancements.