Forecaster summary - Issued 2023-09-19T00:06:33

High energy (greater than 2MeV) electron flux levels are currently at Background levels. An uncertain forecast, with geomagnetic activity associated with recent and potential CMEs early in the forecast period likely to impede any prolonged rise initially. CME arrivals and continued elevated solar winds have likely seen a build up of change within the belts and any easing of solar winds and reduction of geomagnetic activity will likely see flux levels rise quickly. 

The 24-hour fluence is currently below the Active threshold, with current MOSWOC REFM model output likely providing reasonable guidance at least initially. Forecast is lower confidence however given uncertainties above, with an increasing risk of breaching the active threshold into the period.