Forecaster summary - Issued 2023-10-26T00:18:54

Electron flux observed by GOES16 at GEO is currently at Background levels with only slight diurnal rises to Moderate expected. No significant increase to electron populations through the Van Allen Belt is expected during this period with only a weak coronal hole enhancement forecast on day 2 (27 Oct) due to CH64/-. The following CH65/+ and CH66/+ may begin to become geo-effective by the end of Day 4 (29th). These coronal holes look much larger and stronger features on imagery and are anticipated to have a more significant impact on electron populations once their associated fast winds become established. However, this is expected to be beyond the current forecast period.

The associated 24hr electron fluence is forecast to remain below the Active level. This is supported by REFM, while persistence provides a poor guide due to the arrival of CMEs on the previous rotation.