Forecaster summary - Issued 2023-10-20T00:16:12

Electron flux observed by GOES16 at GEO is currently at Normal Background levels. Solar wind enhancements are possible through the coming days, mainly associated with a number of potential CME arrivals throughout the period, or the onset of a weak HSS from the small coronal hole CH62/-. These are all low confidence however, and any enhancement is expected to be largely weak. These may increase electron populations in the Van Allen belts at times, which could bring periods of Moderate flux, most likely towards the end of the period.

The associated 24-hour fluence is expected to remain well below the Active threshold, as supported by MOSWOC REFM. However, the model will only provide good guidance in the absence of any CME or fast wind enhancements. Therefore, with the chance of a weak HSS and potential glancing blows from CME's, fluence levels may increase slightly towards the end of the forecast period, and this trend is not indicated by REFM.