Forecaster summary - Issued 2023-09-20T00:10:18

High energy (greater than 2MeV) electron flux levels are currently close to the High threshold around 1000pfu. An uncertain forecast, with CME arrivals and continued elevated solar winds likely to have seen a build up of change within the belts and any easing of solar winds and reduction of geomagnetic activity expected to see flux levels increasingly rise above the High threshold. Some reduction likely in the near team however, both diurnally but also given the potential for further geomagnetic activity. 

The 24-hour fluence is currently below the Active threshold but on a rising trend, with current MOSWOC REFM model output forecast providing reasonable guidance, with a much increased, and now likely, risk of breaching the active threshold later Day 1 (20 Sep). Forecast remains lower confidence however given uncertainties in the near term.