Forecaster summary - Issued 2023-10-27T00:11:38

Electron flux observed by GOES16 at GEO is currently at Background levels with only slight diurnal rises to Moderate expected. Some increase to electron populations through the Van Allen Belt is possible through the period due to the coronal hole enhancement forecast ongoing into day 1 (27 Oct) from CH64, bringing a slight chance of reaching High at diurnal peak by day 2 (28 Oct). The following fast wind from CH65/+ and CH66/+ is anticipated to have a more significant impact on electron populations, however this is not expected until beyond the current forecast period (31 Oct onward).

The associated 24hr electron fluence is forecast to remain below the Active level. This is supported by REFM, though persistence provides a poor guide due to influence of CMEs on the previous rotation.