MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit
Forecaster summary - Issued 2023-09-27T00:16:20
High energy electron flux (greater than 2MeV) observed by GOES16 has seen a rise to moderate levels as the effects of the CME arrival on 24 Sep wane. Any further CME glancing blows may see the electrons suppressed once again, but this is deemed low confidence, and moderate to high diurnal peaks in electron flux are probable in the coming days, most likely from Day 2 (28 Sep) onwards.
The associated 24 hour fluence is at background levels and is expected to remain below the Active threshold at first. Any increasing trend from Day 3 (29 Sep) onwards is low confidence. REFM is currently giving reasonable overall guidance of the expected trend in the coming days, remaining below Active throughout.
| High Energy Electron Event Forecast | ||
|---|---|---|
| Issued 2023-09-27T00:16:20 | ||
| Probability of threshold exceedance | ||
| Active | V.Active | |
| Day 1 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 2 | 5% | 1% |
| Day 3 | 10% | 1% |
| Day 4 | 10% | 1% |