Forecaster summary - Issued 2023-10-28T00:08:59

Electron flux observed by GOES16 at GEO is currently at generally moderate levels, due to a slight increase in high energy electrons through the Van Allen Belt following the recent coronal hole enhancement from CH64. There is a slight chance of reaching High at the diurnal peak today (28 Oct).  Flux levels are then expected to rapidly decrease to background levels tomorrow or early day 3 with the onset of the HSS and associated geomagnetic activity. Then little change is expected until late day 4 (31st) when flux levels are likely to quickly increase under the influence of the HSS, probably reaching High levels by the end of the period.

The associated 24 hour fluence is forecast to remain below the Active threshold (1e8 integrated pfu), but with an increasing trend today and again during day 4 (31st). This is supported by REFM, though persistence provides a poor guide due to influence of CMEs on the previous rotation.