Forecaster summary - Issued 2023-09-28T00:11:00

High energy electron flux (greater than 2MeV) observed by GOES16 has seen a rise to moderate levels with a high diurnal peak. Moderate to high diurnal peaks in electron flux are likely in the coming days, however any further CME glancing blows may see the electrons suppressed once again, but this is considered very low confidence.

The associated 24 hour fluence has shown a steady rising trend but currently remains just below the Active threshold. The diurnal high peaks in electron flux will mean its likely that we see the associated 24 hour fluence rise above the Active threshold over the coming days, as is suggested by the REFM model. Confidence into Days 3-4 (30 Sep-1 Oct) becomes lower.