Forecaster summary - Issued 2023-11-03T13:29:53

High energy electron flux (greater than 2MeV) is expected to continue to vary between Moderate and High levels initially. A gradual day-on-day decrease in diurnal maxima is probable during the period, as the influence of the previous HSS from CH66 declines, with more persistently background or Moderate levels likely for days 3 and 4 (5th and 6th). 

Electron fluence has exceeded the Active (greater than 1e8 integrated pfu) threshold and is expected to remain above this level today (03 Nov), with a declining trend from tomorrow onwards. The MOSWOC REFM model is therefore considered to be offering good guidance regarding the trend of the fluence, although the model is currently underestimating the fluence and has us below the 1e8 integrated pfu threshold.