Forecaster summary - Issued 2023-11-26T13:07:18

Electron flux levels have been at Background levels following the arrival of the CME from early 22 Nov, as well as any HSS connection. This suppression in electron flux is expected to persist through the first half of the forecast period, given combined forecast CME and HSS (CH75/+) influences on the electron belt and geomagnetic activity in the coming days. High levels of election flux may be reached Day 3 (28 Nov) or Day 4 (29 Nov) when there is an increasing chance that the reduction in the solar wind pressure following recent CMEs and high-speed streams could allow the Van Allen belts to relax and electron flux at GEO to subsequently increase. However for this to occur on Day 3 this relies on possible glancing blow CME on Day 2 missing Earth.
 
Fluence levels are expected to remain below the 1e8 Active threshold throughout the period. The Met Office REFM model forecast will not account for the recently observed, nor the forecast, CME arrivals, and therefore will likely indicate higher fluence values than should be observed. A rising trend in the Recurrence forecast between Days 1 and 2 (26-27 Nov) is based on an earlier arrival time of the high-speed stream from CH75/+ and subsequent recovery of the electron belts on the previous solar rotation. Any notable rise is not expected to take place until Day 3 (28 Nov) or later