Forecaster summary - Issued 2023-11-27T13:19:48

High energy electron flux observed by GOES-16 is currently at background, having been suppressed by recent elevated solar wind pressure due to the recent CME and CH HSS arrival. The influence of these has now, or is currently receding. This is likely to be followed by an increase in electron flux at GEO, likely to Moderate levels with diurnal peaks of high. There is a slight chance of this becoming predominately High day 3 (29 Nov), however the arrival of any further CME is likely to bring a drop out in flux later day 3 and into day 4 (29-30 Nov). 

Overall, the electron fluence is expected to remain below Active (1e8 integrated pfu), although there is a slight chance of rising towards this level later on day 3 (29 Nov) before the arrival of any CME. REFM is currently over-estimating current fluence, but gives support to below Active fluence persisting.