Forecaster summary - Issued 2023-12-26T12:36:26

High energy electron flux (greater than 2MeV) observed by GOES16 is mostly at Normal Background, with no further coronal hole influences featured in the forecast, although brief periods of Moderate flux are likely. There are then the CME glancing impacts possible from 27 to 29 December, and these are likely to further suppress observed flux at GEO until after this four-day period.

The associated 24-hour fluence is expected to persist below Active (1e8 pfu) as a result of the above. Regarding MOSWOC REFM, the fact that the current possible fast wind enhancement is not forecast nor a persistent feature, as well as the presence of three possible CMEs later in the period, will mean that although the initial trend is accepted, the rational is probably incorrect. MOSWOC REFM should not be followed in the second half of the period, although the forecast low fluence count is probably correct.