Forecaster summary - Issued 2023-11-24T13:09:02

 Electron flux levels are expected to continue to increase in the next couple of days as the current solar wind pressure from a coronal hole continues to ease. Flux levels should increase to vary between moderate and diurnally high levels. A suppression of electron flux to mainly background levels is expected towards the end of the period due to combined CME and HSS influences. 
 
Fluence levels are expected to remain below the 1e8 Active threshold initially, with an increasing risk of this being breached today and tomorrow (24-25 Nov) and again day 4 (27th), while temporarily decreasing into day 3 (26 Nov). The Met Office REFM model is initially accepted, as it indicates a rising trend in the fluence whilst the Active threshold is not breached. However, a decrease in the fluence during day 3 (26th) is preferred due to geomagnetic activity.