MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit
Forecaster summary - Issued 2023-12-01T13:29:15
Electron flux has fallen to Background levels following the arrival of recent CMEs in the past 24 hours. Some recovery of flux to Moderate or High levels at diurnal peak, is likely during day 3 (03 Dec), only to decrease to Background levels again as geomagnetic activity increases late day 4 (04 Dec) with the arrival of the HSS from CH76/-.
The associated 24 hour electron fluence is expected to remain below the Active threshold (1e8 integrated pfu), as supported by REFM. However, a rising trend is likely from day 3 onward, once any CME influence recedes with a chance of exceeding the Active threshold on day 4.
| High Energy Electron Event Forecast | ||
|---|---|---|
| Issued 2023-12-01T13:29:15 | ||
| Probability of threshold exceedance | ||
| Active | V.Active | |
| Day 1 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 2 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 3 | 10% | 1% |
| Day 4 | 40% | 1% |