MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit
Forecaster summary - Issued 2024-02-27T13:34:25
High energy electron flux (greater than 2MeV) is currently firmly rooted in Normal Background territory, and this trend is now expected to continue.
No feature of the past several rotations has proven capable of significantly raising electron populations at GEO, and with CH01/- underwhelmingly muted, the only real driver to change this now appears far less likely to be impactful. MOSWOC REFM's thoughts in persisting current 24-hour integrated electron fluence levels well below the Active threshold are therefore considered accurate and are followed here.
| High Energy Electron Event Forecast | ||
|---|---|---|
| Issued 2024-02-27T13:34:25 | ||
| Probability of threshold exceedance | ||
| Active | V.Active | |
| Day 1 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 2 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 3 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 4 | 1% | 1% |