Forecaster summary - Issued 2024-03-28T13:05:46

GOES16 high energy electron flux is at background levels given the likely ongoing connection to the HSS of CH12/- and recent strong CME passage. As geomagnetic activity continues to be muted and solar winds are likely to ease over the next few days the electron flux at GEO is expected to quickly rise to moderate or high levels. 

The associated 24-hour fluence is currently below the Active threshold. Fluence will rise sharply in the coming days with active fluence becoming increasingly likely. MOSWOC REFM output now shows better guidance than recently but may now actually be underplaying the anticipated increase in fluence in coming days.