MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit
Forecaster summary - Issued 2024-03-22T00:12:33
GOES-16 electron flux is expected to remain at mostly background levels. As the CME influence eases a rise in electron flux is possible as the van Allen belts expand back out again, but this is unlikely to be significant.
As a result, the associated 24 fluence is expected to remain below the Active threshold, albeit with a very slight rise in probability through the period. MOSWOC REFM is thought to be giving good guidance.
| High Energy Electron Event Forecast | ||
|---|---|---|
| Issued 2024-03-22T00:12:33 | ||
| Probability of threshold exceedance | ||
| Active | V.Active | |
| Day 1 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 2 | 5% | 1% |
| Day 3 | 5% | 1% |
| Day 4 | 5% | 1% |