MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit
Forecaster summary - Issued 2024-03-20T01:14:49
GOES-16 electron flux is expected to remain at mostly background levels, with no significant sources of enhancement expected. A CME arrival is probable late on Day 1 (20 Mar) and into Day 2 (21 Mar), however this isn't expected to have a large impact at Earth. After the CME influence eases off a rise in electron flux is probable as the van Allen belts expand back out again, but unlikely to be significant.
As a result, the associated 24 fluence is expected to remain below the Active threshold, albeit with a very slight rise in probability later in the period.
| High Energy Electron Event Forecast | ||
|---|---|---|
| Issued 2024-03-20T01:14:49 | ||
| Probability of threshold exceedance | ||
| Active | V.Active | |
| Day 1 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 2 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 3 | 5% | 1% |
| Day 4 | 5% | 1% |