MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit
Forecaster summary - Issued 2024-04-20T00:17:46
High energy electron flux as observed by GOES-16 is expected to remain at background to moderate levels with recent and forecast enhanced geomagnetic activity expected to generally suppress values during the forecast period, perhaps recovering slightly during Day 4 (23 Apr).
The associated 24hr electron fluence is expected to remain well below the Active (1e8 integrated pfu) threshold. A slight upwards trend is towards the end of the period with current REFM output accepted as good guidance.
| High Energy Electron Event Forecast | ||
|---|---|---|
| Issued 2024-04-20T00:17:46 | ||
| Probability of threshold exceedance | ||
| Active | V.Active | |
| Day 1 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 2 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 3 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 4 | 5% | 1% |