Forecaster summary - Issued 2024-04-27T00:09:16

High energy electron flux is likely to be continue to be suppressed at GEO by minor anticipated CME and fast wind arrivals during the period. Any further arrivals/passages are expected to become less obliquely aimed at Earth with time, and the greatest risk of any further dents to the population seen by GOES16 comes in the first 24 hours or so, with CH27 nearest the ecliptic (of the three minor coronal holes at suitable solar longitudes to arrive in the period, CH27, 30 and 29) and with any residual CMEs from the recent spate of activity most likely to cross 1AU.

While a degree of recovery is likely into the new UTC week, the expected relatively small scale of inbound features may mean that the associated 24-hour electron fluence only has a Slight Chance of reaching similar highs to those seen on Thursday 25 April by the end of the four days.