Forecaster summary - Issued 2024-04-26T00:10:16

High energy electron flux as observed by GOES16 has been rising over the past few days and is currently at High levels (since 25/1045 UTC) with a peak so far of 1067pfu. This is likely as a response to the CME arrival and HSS onset that occurred during the past week. Now solar winds have returned to background levels, a further slight increase in flux is possible Day 1 (26 Apr) with a diurnal peak at High. This is only moderate confidence however. The arrival of any CMEs, alongside HSS arrivals most likely on Day 1 (26 Apr), is expected to suppress electron flux once again and bring it near to background levels. Any potential increase due to the upcoming HSS and/or CME effects is unlikely to occur until the very end of, or beyond the end of this period.

The associated 24 hour electron fluence is expected to continue on an increasing trend through Day 1 (25 Apr), with a chance of reaching Active. The fluence is then likely to follow a sharp declining trend once we see the arrival of coronal hole HSSs, and/or any CME arrival. MOSWOC REFM is suggesting a declining trend, but is perhaps a little too fast to bring fluence levels down.