Forecaster summary - Issued 2024-04-25T00:13:07

High energy electron flux as observed by GOES16 has been rising over the past few days and very briefly touched High levels during 24 Apr, likely as a result of the CME arrival and HSS onset that occurred during the past week. Now solar winds have returned to background levels, a further slight increase in flux is possible during the next day or two. This is only moderate confidence however, as the arrival of any CMEs, alongside a HSS arrival most likely on Day 2 (26 Apr), is expected to suppress electron flux once again and bring it near to background levels. Any potential increase due to the upcoming HSS and/or CME effects is unlikely to occur until after the end of this period.

The associated 24 hour electron fluence is expected to continue on a slightly increasing trend in the near term, with a chance of reaching Active on Days 1 or 2 (25-26 Apr). The fluence is then likely to follow a sharper declining trend once we see the HSS arrival, and/or any CME arrival. MOSWOC REFM is suggesting a declining trend, but is perhaps a little too fast to bring fluence levels down.