Forecaster summary - Issued 2024-05-25T00:16:39

The main driver of geomagnetic activity and arising electron response is expected to be the non-persistent CH39/-. Being a new feature, confidence in the ensuing fluence is lower than is typical, and this is now lowered further by the possible influence of the 23 May CME(s) passing 1AU around the time that any upward reaction would otherwise be expected from GOES from the fast wind from CH39.

Overall there is a Slight Chance of eventual Active 24-hour integrated fluence resulting from the fast wind, although the portion of CH39/- near the solar equator appears weak and we are nearing the less potent part of the semi-annual cycle (i.e. we are relatively nearer the muted solstice rather than the equinoxes).