MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit
Forecaster summary - Issued 2024-06-24T00:15:49
High energy electron flux, as observed by GOES-16, has been reaching diurnally moderate levels post enhancement from CH45/+. Electron flux has now been suppressed from the minor solar wind enhancement from either a weak transient or CH46/-. Mainly background electrons are expected for the remainder of the period.
Associated electron fluence is expected to persist well below the Active threshold (1e8 integrated pfu), with MOSWOC REFM output considered to be good guidance.
| High Energy Electron Event Forecast | ||
|---|---|---|
| Issued 2024-06-24T00:15:49 | ||
| Probability of threshold exceedance | ||
| Active | V.Active | |
| Day 1 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 2 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 3 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 4 | 1% | 1% |